Just a short article today and two geeky probability questions.
Probabilities in Magic are very interesting but I haven't been able to use them to my advantage. If I'm playing a two color draft deck, I tend to mulligan if I don't have both of my lands (Island and Plains) but I don't explicitly use probabilities during deck construction or while playing.
The land count is always very important and probabilities might be able to indicate the number of land and land types that a deck needs. Most people develop their intuition by playing a ton of games instead of doing the (boring) calculations.
I presume probabilities would be more useful in limited games because the deck size is smaller.
If I'm splashing 3 blue spells and 5 Islands in a 40 card deck, what is the probability that I'll draw a blue spell and an Island by turn 7? (I used these numbers from Forge's Deck Analysis.)
I think the answer is 29 percent (about one-third of the time) because 0.448 x 0.639 = 0.29 (rounded to 2 decimal places).
Likewise, what is the probability of starting out with an Island and a blue spell?
The answer should be 0.125 x 0.075 = 0.01 (rounded to 2 decimal places). The answer is 1 percent of the time or 1 out of 100 games. (The super-geeky can take into account mulligans which I ignored.)
Thank you for journeying into the world-of-math. Shoutouts to the book: Godel, Escher, Bach: The Eternal Golden Braid. (It is a great book even though it twists your mind a few times. I hated the dialogue between chapters but everything else was great.)
I double checked my math but I wouldn't stake my life on it. ;-)